Sample Daily Brief — SQ Research

Macro Regime

Weak / Neutral

Volatility

Contango

VIX 19.4

Yield Curve

Normal

2s10s +0.4bp

Credit

Normal

HY/IG 3.71

Correlation

Stable

Models Active

1 / 10

9 excluded · late cycle regime

Ensemble Composition

1 of 10 active · 9 excluded in current regime

Volatility Model

IC lower CI = -0.108 ≤ 0

Off

Precious Metals Model

IC lower CI = -0.147 ≤ 0

Off

Correlation Model

IC lower CI = -0.115 ≤ 0

Off

Alpha Model

IC lower CI = +0.053 > 0

Active

Macro Model

IC lower CI = -0.138 ≤ 0

Off

Sentiment Model

excluded in regime

Off

Trend Model

IC lower CI = -0.111 ≤ 0

Off

Volatility Term Model

IC lower CI = -0.017 ≤ 0

Off

Commodity Model

IC lower CI = -0.056 ≤ 0

Off

Statistical Model

IC lower CI = -0.001 ≤ 0

Off

Today’s Asset Brief

SPY S&P 500

Strong Long +0.9273

late cyclenormalstablecontangotrendingbearish divergence

3-Day

2d old

3-Week

Neutral

2d old

3-Month

3d old

9-Month

3d old

36-Month

42d old

mature

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+27.333). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.59).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.480, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.15) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

Longs: 28Shorts: 27Neutral: 0Risk flags: 0Weak models: 18Net bias: +2% long

XLEUS Energy

Strong Long+0.9636+0.479

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong downward. 3-week trend is strong upward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+23.991). The intermediate move has persisted for 11 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.51).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.479, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.23) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

SPYUS Broad Market

Strong Long+0.9273+0.480

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.480, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.15) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

QQQUS Broad Market

Strong Long+0.8909+0.671

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is mildly positive (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+40.824). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.61).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.671, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.20) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

SMCIUS Technology

Strong Short-0.8545-0.499

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong downward. 3-week trend is strong downward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 8 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-30.541). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.64).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.499, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.499, n=63) — signal unreliable. ⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.44) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLKUS Technology

Strong Long+0.7818+0.400

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is moderate downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+54.773). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.65).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.400, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.26) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

IWMUS Broad Market

Strong Long+0.7091+0.506

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+31.995). The intermediate move has persisted for 13 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.56).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.506, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.19) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLIUS Industrials

Strong Long+0.4545+0.379

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+28.178). The intermediate move has persisted for 14 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.65).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.379, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.17) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XHBUS Real Estate

Strong Short-0.4545-0.147

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+4.949). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.61).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.147, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.147, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.19) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

DIAUS Broad Market

Strong Long+0.4182-0.008

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+20.704). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.59).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model's recent ic on this ticker is near zero (ic=-0.008, n=63) — treat with caution.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model's recent ic on this ticker is near zero (ic=-0.008, n=63) — treat with caution. Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.14) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLYUS Discretionary

Strong Long+0.3818+0.395

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+13.676). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.57).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.395, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.19) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLPUS Staples

Strong Short-0.3091+0.401

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 6 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+8.907). The intermediate move has persisted for 6 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.63).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.401, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLREUS Real Estate

Long+0.2727-0.034

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 1 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+11.321). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.49).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.034, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.034, n=63) — signal unreliable. ⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

XLBUS Materials

Long+0.2364-0.539

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. Price is overbought on the short-term band. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+15.610). The intermediate move has persisted for 8 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.58).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bullish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.539, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.539, n=63) — signal unreliable. ⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.11).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLUUS Utilities

Short-0.2000+0.211

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 3 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+15.086). The intermediate move has persisted for 2 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.62).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.211, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.11).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLVUS Healthcare

Short-0.1636+0.289

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is moderate upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+7.140). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.57).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.289, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.09).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLCUS Communications

Long+0.1273+0.247

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is moderate upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+17.252). The intermediate move has persisted for 2 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.59).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bullish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.247, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.10).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XLFUS Financials

Mild Short-0.0909-0.235

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+14.867). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.57).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.235, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.235, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.12).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

KREUS Financials

Mild Short-0.0182+0.244

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 7 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+27.734). The intermediate move has persisted for 11 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.58).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.244, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

EWGInternational Developed

Strong Long+1.0000-0.311

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+18.922). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.59).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.311, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.311, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.16) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

EWYEmerging Markets

Strong Short-0.9636-0.345

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+141.750). The intermediate move has persisted for 14 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.62).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.345, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.345, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.36) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

EEMEmerging Markets

Strong Long+0.8545+0.217

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+43.380). The intermediate move has persisted for 16 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.50).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.217, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.20) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWAInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.6727-0.222

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+15.065). The intermediate move has persisted for 7 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.54).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.222, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.222, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWUInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.6364+0.182

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is moderate upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+23.275). The intermediate move has persisted for 17 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.50).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.183, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.08).

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWTInternational Developed

Strong Short-0.6364+0.431

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+77.632). The intermediate move has persisted for 14 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.56).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.431, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.27) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

EWJInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.5818+0.521

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+26.228). The intermediate move has persisted for 15 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.50).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.521, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.17) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWPInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.5818+0.133

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+47.424). The intermediate move has persisted for 17 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.49).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.133, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.15) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWQInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.5273-0.181

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+13.898). The intermediate move has persisted for 3 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.51).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.181, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.181, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.14) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWLInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.4909+0.400

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+19.932). The intermediate move has persisted for 18 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.59).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.400, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.10).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

EWSInternational Developed

Strong Long+0.3455-0.113

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+25.397). The intermediate move has persisted for 28 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.52).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.113, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.113, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

EWHInternational Developed

Short-0.2727+0.277

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+16.499). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.56).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.277, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.11).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

EWZEmerging Markets

Short-0.2364-0.169

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+13.815). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.61).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.169, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.169, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.08) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

FXIEmerging Markets

Mild Long+0.0545+0.212

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 3 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+10.831). The intermediate move has persisted for 5 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.46).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bullish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.212, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

INDAEmerging Markets

Mild Short-0.0545-0.062

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-6.026). The intermediate move has persisted for 6 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.57).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.062, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.062, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.16) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

SILJPrecious Metals

Strong Short-0.9273+0.247

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+66.894). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.63).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.247, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.24) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

SILPrecious Metals

Strong Short-0.8909+0.537

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+67.941). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.62).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.537, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.23) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

XOPEnergy Commodities

Strong Long+0.8182-0.061

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is moderate downward. 3-week trend is strong upward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+17.195). The intermediate move has persisted for 6 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.57).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.062, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.062, n=63) — signal unreliable. ⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.25) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

COPXMaterials

Strong Short-0.8182+0.298

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong upward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+68.795). The intermediate move has persisted for 14 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.62).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.298, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.29) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

URNJEnergy Commodities

Strong Short-0.7818-0.364

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 4 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+2.776). The intermediate move has persisted for 2 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.61).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.364, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.364, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.30) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

OIHEnergy Commodities

Strong Long+0.7455+0.402

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+38.305). The intermediate move has persisted for 11 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.52).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.402, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: low.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

SLVPrecious Metals

Strong Short-0.7455+0.241

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+67.676). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.60).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.241, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.13) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

GDXPrecious Metals

Strong Short-0.7091+0.644

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 4 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+54.699). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.64).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bearish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.644, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.18) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

GDXJPrecious Metals

Strong Short-0.6727+0.292

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+57.782). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.66).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bearish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.293, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.20) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

GLDPrecious Metals

Strong Short-0.6000-0.350

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 4 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+36.371). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.65).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.350, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.350, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.10).

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

URAEnergy Commodities

Strong Short-0.5636+0.039

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+30.094). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.61).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bearish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has moderate recent predictive skill here (ic=+0.039, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.30) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

URNMEnergy Commodities

Strong Short-0.5273-0.125

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+9.277). The intermediate move has persisted for 2 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.60).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bearish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.125, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.125, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: elevated. High rate sensitivity (score=0.23) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

BITODigital Assets

Strong Short-0.4909+0.651

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-54.101). The intermediate move has persisted for 11 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.56).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bearish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.651, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.24) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

CORNAgriculture

Strong Short-0.4182+0.214

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong downward. 3-week trend is strong downward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-11.672). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.60).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.215, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

DBAAgriculture

Strong Short-0.3818+0.528

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong downward. 3-week trend is strong downward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 11 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+4.363). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.63).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.528, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: elevated.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

REMXMaterials

Strong Short-0.3455+0.234

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+59.414). The intermediate move has persisted for 12 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.55).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bearish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.234, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.10) — sensitive to hy spread moves.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

TAGSAgriculture

Strong Long+0.3091+0.501

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong downward. 3-week trend is strong downward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 4 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-9.654). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.50).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.502, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: low.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

WEATAgriculture

Long+0.2000+0.214

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong downward. 3-week trend is strong downward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 2 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-10.556). The intermediate move has persisted for 5 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.53).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bullish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.214, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal. High rate sensitivity (score=0.14).

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

LITMaterials

Long+0.1636+0.140

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+57.677). The intermediate move has persisted for 12 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.46).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bullish: Alpha Model. Model has predicted this ticker well recently (ic=+0.140, n=63).

Risk Conditions

⚠ vol regime is crisis — elevated tail risk. High rate sensitivity (score=0.08).

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

MOOAgriculture

Mild Long+0.0909+0.021

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong downward (diverging with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 3 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+5.401). The intermediate move has persisted for 1 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is random walk (h=0.55).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bullish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has moderate recent predictive skill here (ic=+0.021, n=63).

Risk Conditions

Vol regime: normal.

late cyclestablecontangonormalrandom

SOYBAgriculture

Mild Long+0.0182-0.256

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is moderate downward. 3-week trend is strong downward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is strong downward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong upward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bullish (+1.748). The intermediate move has persisted for 6 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.62).

Signal Consensus

No active signals align with the bullish meta direction. Dissenting: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.256, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.256, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

TLTFixed Income

Short-0.1273-0.202

Short-Term · 3-Day / 3-Week

3-day momentum is strong upward. 3-week trend is strong upward (aligned with 3-day). Current move is 2 days old.

Intermediate · 3-Month

3-month momentum is moderate upward. Intermediate trend is 1 days mature. Vix term structure signals low stress (vix contango).

Long-Term · 9-Month / Secular

9-month trend is strong downward. Secular (36-month) backdrop is bearish (-5.458). The intermediate move has persisted for 4 days. Macro regime is late cycle. Rate environment is normal yield curve. Momentum persistence is trending (h=0.55).

Signal Consensus

1 of 1 active signal(s) bearish: Alpha Model. Model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.202, n=63) — signal unreliable.

Risk Conditions

⚠ model has struggled to predict this ticker recently (ic=-0.202, n=63) — signal unreliable. Vol regime: normal.

late cyclestablecontangonormaltrending

Mean IC

0.1004

Predictive accuracy. 0 = random. 0.10+ sustained = consistent edge.

T-Statistic

6.1293

Statistical confidence. Institutional threshold: 2.0. At 6.13, probability of chance < 1 in 1B.

IC Lower 95%

0.0729

Lower bound on the edge. Positive = non-zero edge confirmed.

OOS Months

147

Monthly walk-forward prediction observations, 2014–present. Every prediction made on data the model had never seen before.