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Quantitative. Systematic.
Built from first principles.

We lived through two market collapses. We spent fifteen years building a system that identifies trends with mathematical precision, sizes positions to measured risk, and exits on evidence — not opinion. This is how it works.

The foundation

What quantitative and systematic actually mean — and why it matters to you.

Sophus Quant is in the name deliberately. These are not buzzwords. They describe a specific, disciplined approach to markets that is fundamentally different from how most investors — and most investment products — operate.

Quantitative
Every decision is driven by measurement, not opinion.
Quantitative investing means that every entry, every exit, and every position size is determined by mathematical models applied to market data — not by a portfolio manager's gut feeling, a news headline, or a macroeconomic narrative. The system measures what is actually happening in markets. It does not interpret it. It does not have opinions about the Fed or geopolitics. It measures, and it acts on what it measures.
What this means for you
Your returns are not hostage to a manager's mood, bias, or overconfidence. The same measurement produces the same signal, every time, regardless of what the news is saying.
Systematic
Rules, not discretion. Every time, without exception.
Systematic means the strategy follows a pre-defined set of rules with complete consistency. If the signal says enter, the system enters. If it says exit, it exits. There is no second-guessing, no "let's wait and see," no overriding the signal because a position feels uncomfortable. This is the hardest discipline in investing — and the most valuable. The single most common investor mistake is abandoning a proven system at exactly the moment it is about to work.
What this means for you
The strategy behaves the same way in a panic as it does in a rally. Emotion is not a variable in the outcome.
Factor-based
Targeting specific, measurable drivers of return.
Rather than picking markets based on a thesis or a narrative, the signal targets specific characteristics — momentum, conviction strength, volatility — that have historically driven returns across asset classes. Think of it as selecting team members based on their actual performance statistics rather than reputation. Each factor the system measures has a defined, testable relationship to forward returns. When multiple factors align in the same direction for the same market, conviction is high. When they diverge, conviction is low.
What this means for you
Position sizing reflects genuine signal strength — not equal-weight assumptions or arbitrary allocations. Your largest positions are the highest-conviction opportunities.
Multi-model ensemble
Many independent signals. One combined conviction score.
No single model is right all the time. The system combines multiple independent signal models — each evaluating markets from a different angle — into a single conviction score. When many independent models agree, conviction is high. When they disagree, the system is cautious. This is the same ensemble logic that defines the most sophisticated systematic investment research: diversify across models the same way you diversify across markets. Individual model errors cancel. What remains is the genuine signal.
What this means for you
The signal you act on is not the output of one model that could be wrong. It is the aggregated view of many independent assessments.
How we operate

Five principles. Applied every day, without exception.

These are not aspirational values. They are the operational rules the system follows every time it evaluates a market, opens a position, or closes one.

01
Trend following
We identify the trend. We ride it. We exit when it ends.
If a market is moving in a direction with measurable conviction, the system positions in that direction and holds. It does not predict where the market will go. It measures where it is going and follows. We do not pick tops. We do not pick bottoms. We capture the middle of the move — which is where returns compound. When the trend ends, we exit. Not before, not after.
02
Conviction-gated entry
We only enter when the signal is strong. Not when it might be.
Every market is evaluated against a high, absolute conviction threshold before a position is opened. A market that is "sort of trending" does not qualify. Most markets, on most days, do not clear the bar. This produces a concentrated portfolio of high-conviction opportunities rather than a diluted portfolio of everything that looks vaguely interesting. Fewer, stronger positions — sized larger — outperform many weak positions sized small.
03
Volatility-derived sizing
Each position is sized to the risk of that specific market. Not arbitrarily.
A volatile market and a calm market do not receive the same allocation. Each position is sized so that a normal adverse move in that market represents a defined, predictable fraction of the portfolio. When a market becomes more volatile, its allocation shrinks automatically. When it calms, it can grow. This is dynamically volatility-adjusted leverage: the system sizes to measured risk, not to a fixed percentage. Exposure follows the market's actual behavior — not what you think it should be.
04
Signal-driven exit
Exit is determined before entry. And it moves as the market moves.
The exit rule is defined at the moment a position opens — not decided later under pressure. A position closes when its signal reverses or decays below a defined threshold. Not when a price target is hit. Not when a calendar date arrives. Not because the position feels uncomfortable. The exit threshold is also dynamically adjusted per market — calibrated to how that specific market's signal tends to decay, not applied uniformly. This is the asymmetric risk/reward structure: losses are cut when the thesis changes; winners run as long as the trend runs.
05
Drawdown-aware risk management
When drawdowns deepen, exposure steps down. Capital is preserved for recovery.
As the portfolio draws down from its peak, the overall risk budget automatically steps down — reducing position sizes and protecting remaining capital without requiring any manual intervention. This is not a fixed stop-loss. It is a continuous, dynamic process that monitors peak-to-trough distance in real time. When the portfolio recovers, the risk budget restores. The system does not panic and it does not double down. It manages the drawdown intelligently, so that capital is available when the next trend emerges.
What the principles produced

Twelve years of daily data. The numbers speak for themselves.

These five principles, applied systematically across 65 markets over twelve years, produced the following results. Every figure comes from a real position-level backtest on actual market prices.

7,263%
Peak total return · 12yr
36.6%
Peak annualized return
−15.9%
Max drawdown · peak tier
65
Markets covered daily
What we are built to achieve

Three goals. Every strategy, every day.

These are not aspirational marketing claims. They are the specific investment objectives the system is engineered to pursue — and what twelve years of data demonstrates it can deliver.

Absolute return
Most funds measure success by beating an index. We measure success by making money — in both good markets and bad ones. The goal is a positive return regardless of what the S&P 500 does. In 2022, while the S&P 500 fell 19.4%, the unlevered strategy returned +127.3%. This is not a coincidence of timing. It is the result of a system that can go both long and short, across multiple asset classes, based entirely on where the trends actually are.
Trend capture
Markets move in trends. The question is not whether to follow them — it is whether your system is disciplined enough to identify them early, hold them through noise, and exit when they genuinely end. We do not predict trends. We identify them, then ride them for all they can give. This means we will never buy the absolute bottom or sell the absolute top. We will capture the extended middle — where the largest returns live — across all 65 markets simultaneously.
Asymmetric risk/reward
The system is designed so that losses are small and bounded, while gains are large and uncapped. When a position's thesis changes, it closes immediately — not eventually. When a position's thesis continues, it holds — for as long as the signal supports it, regardless of calendar. This asymmetry is what allows the system to be wrong on individual positions regularly and still compound strongly over time. One strong trend held correctly produces returns that cover many small, fast losses.
The Sophus Quant philosophy

We don't predict markets. We measure them — then act with conviction.

Two market collapses taught us that the investors who survive are not the ones who predicted the crash. They are the ones whose system told them to be elsewhere when it happened, and back in when the trend returned. Quantitative discipline is not a constraint on returns. It is the source of them.

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Common questions

What serious investors ask first.

What does "quantitative" actually mean in practice? +
It means every decision the system makes — entry, exit, position size — is determined by a mathematical model applied to market data. There is no human discretion, no overrides, no second-guessing the signal. The model runs. The signal is produced. The rules execute. This removes the single biggest risk in investment management: the human error of acting on emotion rather than evidence. Quantitative does not mean the system is always right. It means it is always consistent — and consistency is what produces compounding over time.
Why does trend following work? +
Markets trend because of structural features of investor behavior: slow information dissemination, institutional momentum, forced buying and selling, and regime persistence. When a trend begins — in any asset class — it does not instantly reflect in every investor's portfolio. Capital moves gradually. The trend runs until it exhausts the available momentum. A systematic trend-following system is simply a disciplined way to participate in that process across many markets simultaneously, without the cognitive errors that prevent most investors from holding through the inevitable short-term noise.
What does "dynamically volatility-adjusted" mean? +
It means position sizes are not fixed — they change continuously based on how volatile each market is. When a market becomes more volatile, the system automatically allocates less capital to it, so that the dollar risk per position stays constant even as the market's behavior changes. When volatility falls, the allocation can grow. The subscriber selects a risk level — how much of their capital they are willing to put at risk per position — and the system sizes every position dynamically to honor that selection. Leverage is the output of this process, not an input chosen arbitrarily.
Why does the system hold some positions longer than others? +
Because the exit rule is signal-driven, not calendar-driven. A position stays open as long as the signal supports it — whether that is four days or four months. Different markets have different signal decay profiles: some trends end abruptly, others fade slowly. The exit threshold for each market is calibrated to how that specific market's signal tends to behave when a trend is ending. The result is that positions in fast-moving markets tend to be shorter, and positions in sustained macro trends tend to be longer. The system never forces an exit arbitrarily.
What happens when the system is wrong? +
It exits quickly and moves on. The conviction threshold and signal-driven exit rules are specifically designed so that a wrong position closes as soon as the signal fails — not when a stop-loss price is hit, not on a calendar date, but when the evidence that opened the position is no longer there. This is the asymmetric structure: losses are fast and contained; gains run as long as the trend runs. The system does not need to be right most of the time to produce strong returns. It needs to cut losses small and let winners compound — which is exactly what systematic signal-driven exits enable.
Who built this and why is there no names page? +
The Sophus Quant research team is a group of engineers and quantitative researchers. We lived through the dot-com collapse and the GFC — both formative experiences that defined our approach. The research team maintains privacy by design. We believe the methodology and the twelve-year track record speak for themselves without requiring names attached to them. The work either holds up to scrutiny or it does not. Everything you need to evaluate it is on this site.

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