Real monthly returns for each tier, from that tier's own 2026 daily backtest equity curve. Each tier's own risk-unit sizing and deleveraging path, not scaled from another tier.
At the 6% risk tier, the strategy spent 1 trading day in a reduced-exposure state, stepping the risk budget down as drawdown deepened past the 5% / 10% / 15% / 20% thresholds. This is the mechanism's core purpose: capital preservation during uncertainty, full deployment when the trend is clear.
Indexed to 0% at the start of 2026, shown at the 6% tier. Real daily equity curve, resampled to monthly.
Cumulative return · Jan–Jul 2026 · Levered trending 6% tier · Real backtest
The signal was identical across all tiers in 2026. What changed was how much exposure the system took at each risk level.
| Risk tier | 2026 return | Max drawdown | Avg exposure | Return bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | +3.2% | −2.0% | 0.50× | |
| 2% | +5.2% | −3.1% | 0.90× | |
| 3% | +8.1% | −3.4% | 1.21× | |
| 4% | +8.4% | −5.6% | 1.55× | |
| 5% | +10.1% | −4.6% | 1.77× | |
| 6% | +10.8% | −5.0% | 1.98× |
Editorial commentary for 2026 is being finalized and will appear here shortly.