Real monthly returns for each tier, from that tier's own 2025 daily backtest equity curve. Each tier's own risk-unit sizing and deleveraging path, not scaled from another tier.
At the 6% risk tier, the strategy spent 14 trading days in a reduced-exposure state, stepping the risk budget down as drawdown deepened past the 5% / 10% / 15% / 20% thresholds. This is the mechanism's core purpose: capital preservation during uncertainty, full deployment when the trend is clear.
Indexed to 0% at the start of 2025, shown at the 6% tier. Real daily equity curve, resampled to monthly.
Cumulative return · Jan–Dec 2025 · Levered trending 6% tier · Real backtest
The signal was identical across all tiers in 2025. What changed was how much exposure the system took at each risk level.
| Risk tier | 2025 return | Max drawdown | Avg exposure | Return bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | +10.2% | −1.7% | 0.42× | |
| 2% | +21.6% | −3.4% | 0.81× | |
| 3% | +31.4% | −3.4% | 1.10× | |
| 4% | +43.9% | −3.6% | 1.32× | |
| 5% | +54.3% | −4.4% | 1.51× | |
| 6% | +56.0% | −5.1% | 1.61× |
Editorial commentary for 2025 is being finalized and will appear here shortly.